By: J. Lennox Scott | Chairman and CEO
Thank you for the opportunity to be of service.
4 Key Dynamics to the Mid-Year Housing Forecast
The Puget Sound housing market in 2025 has entered a new phase—one defined by balance, but also shaped by four key dynamics:
Not bringing their home on the market due to low locked-in mortgage rates
• Homeowner Hesitancy:
While the frenzy multiple offer market of past years has cooled, demand remains strong, especially in mid-price ranges. Consultation, guidance, and personal representation are important in today’s market.
1 Homeowner hesitancy is still in play
2025
Mid-Year Housing Forecast
Market Overview: A Return to Balance
Home buyers who need to sell their current home before they can purchase their next home
• Buyer Gridlock:
After March 2025, the U.S. economic concerns lowered the Sales Activity Intensity™ for each
new listing
• Market Intensity:
• Economic Outlook:
Although there has been a recent surge of new resale listings after the most recent intensity adjustment in March, many homeowners who have a low home mortgage interest rate are holding back from listing their homes for sale. This reluctance to give up favorable financing terms has restricted the supply of new resale listings coming on the market in the normal sequence, keeping the general supply in check.
Selling your home in today’s market
Buyers and sellers who adapt quickly are finding success in this evolving landscape
Know how your home compares to other homes for sale in your price range and neighborhood
• Understand Your Peer Group:
Whether you're upsizing, downsizing, or relocating, understanding the market where you're headed is important
• Plan for Your Next Destination:
A seller consultation helps you evaluate timing, pricing, and strategy—ensuring you're ready to act when the right opportunity arises
• Consult Early:
It’s okay to buy and sell within the same market timing
• Leverage Market Timing:
Many potential home buyers own a home and have a for sale sign in the front yard. They are facing buyer gridlock as they need to sell their current home before they can close on their next home.
2 Buyer Gridlock
Breakthrough Buyer Gridlock: Create movement, get in position to move forward
Understand your financial position, market conditions, and what’s realistic in today’s environment
• Start with a Buyer Consultation:
Get freedom of movement and create greater seller certainty to accept your offer by being Market Ready to sell your current home
• The Possibility of Home for Sale Contingency:
It’s not just about finding a home—it’s about buying the right home at the right price and terms
• Focus on the Right Fit:
Finding a home online is just one step. Personal representation gives you the advantage of expert guidance and someone dedicated to your best interests from start to finish.
• Partner with a Trusted Advisor:
If you are going to obtain a mortgage loan, get fully underwritten to increase your purchasing power and seller certainty
• Buyer Ready, Day One™:
A Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) from recent pending’s will help you make an informed, competitive offer
• Use a Buyer CMA to Your Advantage:
Despite the hesitation, today’s market offers real advantages: greater selection, market pricing, home inspections, and stronger negotiating power.
Sales Activity Intensity™ is a John L. Scott term that describes the velocity of the market. This indicator is based on the percentage of new resale listings that go under contract within the first 30 days on the market. The yearly high Sales Activity Intensity™ occurs in the first three months of the year, lowering one level of hotness in April and another level in June.
3 Market Intensity Adjustment
To move forward confidently, sellers need a clear plan:
Mid-price ranges have cooled from extreme frenzy to a very strong market. This year, the seasonal slowdown was more pronounced than usual with intensity levels dropping two to three levels after March. As multiple offers started to fade, home prices lowered from extreme frenzy premium pricing back down to market price. This reset has brought pricing back in line with market fundamentals, giving buyers more negotiating power and better value.
Tariffs and broader economic pressures are influencing home mortgage interest rates, construction costs, and consumer confidence. These headwinds are adding complexity to the market and may continue to affect Sales Activity Intensity™ and affordability as we progress through summer.
The luxury segment remains active, particularly near job centers. However, as more listings come online, competition is increasing. For luxury sellers, the key is aligning the sale of your current home with your next home purchase. Buying and selling within the same market timing can be a smart strategy—if you plan ahead.
4 Economic Outlook: Tariffs, Rates, and Expert Insight
Luxury Market: Timing is Everything
