2024 Mid-Year Housing Forecast
By: J. Lennox Scott | Chairman and CEO
Thank you for the opportunity to be of service.
Sales Activity Intensity™
Residential real estate activity follows a yearly pattern
fluctuates throughout the year, typically elevating two levels of hotness after the first of the year before lowering one level during pre-summer and one more level over the summer. Sales Activity Intensity™ is a John L. Scott report that shows the percentage of homes going under contract within the first 30 days that a home is on the market. New resale listings get the most buyer activity within the first three weeks on the market.
Historically, we see the biggest home price boost during the first three months of the year. Prices begin to moderate in pre-summer and summer as some unsold inventory accumulates and more homes come on the market. The more affordable and mid-price ranges have elevated Sales Activity Intensity™ due to buyer demand and low availability.
How does this affect home prices?
There are four months remaining until the winter market. During these next four months (July - October), there will be a good level of new resale listings coming on the market within a slightly lower Sales Activity Intensity™ environment. This is a welcome feeling for home buyers, although there is still
a very strong to frenzy intensity in the more affordable and mid-price ranges. Over the winter
(November - February), substantially fewer homes come on the market until March of the next year.
We call this the winter cleanup and then the cycle starts all over again.
What’s ahead?
Mid-year 2024, home mortgage interest rates are approximately 7%. When they dip into the upper 6% range, we expect to see 5% - 10% more buyer demand. This will elevate the intensity, especially in the more affordable and mid-price ranges where 80% of transactions happen within each market.
Home mortgage interest rates
Life events: Job transfer, Household formation change, Estates
Life choice: Homeowners with major home equity
Moving closer to family/friends, changing lifestyle, and environment
Who is moving in today’s housing market?
Local homeowners who currently have a low home mortgage interest rate are not repositioning
at the normal pace within a local market. This is what is keeping home inventory low, creating strong Sales Activity Intensity™.
Those not moving in the normal sequence
Close to job centers, the luxury market has experienced very strong sales activity. We expect this to moderate as more luxury listings come on the market over the summer.
The Luxury Market
• It’s OK to buy and sell within same market timing
• You owe it to yourself to have a consultation session with your John L. Scott
broker associate to discuss your goals and market trends
• Walk in the positive outcome
• You are a powerful spirit
Important to remember:
